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Chartupdate zum MTC Pattern aus Subscriber Bereich, 1200 Punkte

Option auf übergeordnetes MTC Pattern

# indie:lang_version = 5 from math import nan, isnan from indie import indicator, param, color, plot, MainContext, Optional, line_style, Color, Var from indie.algorithms import Atr, PivotHighLow from indie.drawings import LabelAbs, LineSegment, Rectangle, AbsolutePosition, callout_position from indie.color import rgba

package All in 1 Indicator

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From a technical perspective, following the pullback from the high of $4,382, the subsequent rebound peaked at $4,202, marking a clear pattern of lower highs. The current price sits below the Bollinger Bands' middle rail at $4,122; with the middle rail itself trending downward, this signals a continuing decline in the medium-term equilibrium price. The lower Bollinger Band lies at $3,932, while recent lows have appeared near $3,944 and $3,984, establishing the $3,950–$4,000 range as a zone of high price activity frequently tested by the market.

An escalation in geopolitical conflict does not necessarily lead to a rise in gold prices. When Middle East tensions directly drive up crude oil prices, a chain reaction bearish for gold is triggered: escalation of US-Iran conflict → disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in crude oil prices → a rebound in energy inflation expectations → strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes → a rise in US Treasury real yields → increased holding costs for gold → institutional reduction of long positions in gold.

Based on the 4-hour chart, the short-term downward momentum in gold may pause, leading to a rebound as the market battles around the $4,000 level. To sustain this, the price needs to hold the support zone near $4,023–$4,045, while the trend line area of ​​$4,097–$4,126 remains a zone of strong resistance.

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On the 4-hour chart, the market is exhibiting a pattern of weak oscillation, indicating that it has not yet reached a state of severe oversold conditions and that further adjustment remains possible. If the price breaks above $4,077 and stabilizes, it could attract a return of buying interest, shifting focus to the overhead resistance zone between $4,195 and $4,135; conversely, a drop below $4,030 could open the way for a pullback toward the $3,950 or even the $3,920 level.

Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; holding it generates no fixed interest. Consequently, the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds directly determines the opportunity cost of holding gold and serves as a key driver—either suppressing or boosting—gold prices in the short term.

The pricing dynamics of the gold market are undergoing a structural shift. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on gold prices is no longer a simple case of "safe-haven buying" driving up values; instead, it operates through a complex transmission chain: oil prices → inflation → Federal Reserve policy.

In terms of price range, Bitcoin has fluctuated intraday between $61,794 and $63,063, yet the strength of the rebound remains limited. Previously, the price faced selling pressure above $64,200, subsequently pulling back rapidly toward the lower bound of the July trading range.

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A basic analysis of NG1:

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Gold prices have held the $4,000–$4,021 support zone and reclaimed positions above both the 50-period moving average ($4,021.55) and the 100-period moving average ($4,038.93), allowing the bulls to regain the short-term technical advantage.

The pricing logic of the gold market is undergoing a structural shift. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on gold prices is no longer a simple case of "safe-haven buying driving up prices"; instead, it operates through a complex transmission chain: oil prices → inflation → Federal Reserve policy.

Overall, the cooling of CPI has temporarily brought about a short-term technical rebound in gold prices. However, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the dual pressure of inflation risks in the Middle East remain, so gold has not yet entered a sustained bullish trend. In the short term, it should be viewed as a range-bound market.

Monday's short-term trend continued its downward trend. We can consider shorting again when the price rebounds and encounters resistance. The key resistance level to watch is around 4080-4090. The first support level to watch is the 4000 level, and the stronger support level is the 3950 level.Tomorrow, Tuesday, the CPI will be the key turning point this week. If inflation is higher than expected, gold prices will likely continue to test the support level of 3950. However, once inflation cools down significantly, the bulls are expected to rebound and retest the 4120 level.Currently, gold is experiencing a weak and volatile market dominated by negative interest rate factors and escalating geopolitical tensions. It is unlikely that the bulls will be able to completely reverse the trend in the short term. Therefore, the direction of the trend will need to be confirmed after the release of US inflation data this week.