On the 4-hour chart, the market is exhibiting a pattern of weak oscillation, indicating that it has not yet reached a state of severe oversold conditions and that further adjustment remains possible. If the price breaks above $4,077 and stabilizes, it could attract a return of buying interest, shifting focus to the overhead resistance zone between $4,195 and $4,135; conversely, a drop below $4,030 could open the way for a pullback toward the $3,950 or even the $3,920 level.

Gold prices have held the $4,000–$4,021 support zone and reclaimed positions above both the 50-period moving average ($4,021.55) and the 100-period moving average ($4,038.93), allowing the bulls to regain the short-term technical advantage.

From a technical perspective, following the pullback from the high of $4,382, the subsequent rebound peaked at $4,202, marking a clear pattern of lower highs. The current price sits below the Bollinger Bands' middle rail at $4,122; with the middle rail itself trending downward, this signals a continuing decline in the medium-term equilibrium price. The lower Bollinger Band lies at $3,932, while recent lows have appeared near $3,944 and $3,984, establishing the $3,950–$4,000 range as a zone of high price activity frequently tested by the market.

Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; holding it generates no fixed interest. Consequently, the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds directly determines the opportunity cost of holding gold and serves as a key driver—either suppressing or boosting—gold prices in the short term.

The pricing logic of the gold market is undergoing a structural shift. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on gold prices is no longer a simple case of "safe-haven buying driving up prices"; instead, it operates through a complex transmission chain: oil prices → inflation → Federal Reserve policy.

An escalation in geopolitical conflict does not necessarily lead to a rise in gold prices. When Middle East tensions directly drive up crude oil prices, a chain reaction bearish for gold is triggered: escalation of US-Iran conflict → disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in crude oil prices → a rebound in energy inflation expectations → strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes → a rise in US Treasury real yields → increased holding costs for gold → institutional reduction of long positions in gold.

The pricing dynamics of the gold market are undergoing a structural shift. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on gold prices is no longer a simple case of "safe-haven buying" driving up values; instead, it operates through a complex transmission chain: oil prices → inflation → Federal Reserve policy.

Based on the 4-hour chart, the short-term downward momentum in gold may pause, leading to a rebound as the market battles around the $4,000 level. To sustain this, the price needs to hold the support zone near $4,023–$4,045, while the trend line area of ​​$4,097–$4,126 remains a zone of strong resistance.

In terms of price range, Bitcoin has fluctuated intraday between $61,794 and $63,063, yet the strength of the rebound remains limited. Previously, the price faced selling pressure above $64,200, subsequently pulling back rapidly toward the lower bound of the July trading range.

Attention should focus on this week's CPI inflation data and whether shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate. Gold has a chance to reclaim the $4,091–$4,123 resistance zone only if CPI data falls short of expectations, driving real yields lower; conversely, if oil prices surge again, the market will remain focused on inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.