Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; holding it generates no fixed interest. Consequently, the real yield on U.S. Treasury bonds directly determines the opportunity cost of holding gold and serves as a key driver—either suppressing or boosting—gold prices in the short term.

The pricing logic of the gold market is undergoing a structural shift. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on gold prices is no longer a simple case of "safe-haven buying driving up prices"; instead, it operates through a complex transmission chain: oil prices → inflation → Federal Reserve policy.

An escalation in geopolitical conflict does not necessarily lead to a rise in gold prices. When Middle East tensions directly drive up crude oil prices, a chain reaction bearish for gold is triggered: escalation of US-Iran conflict → disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in crude oil prices → a rebound in energy inflation expectations → strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes → a rise in US Treasury real yields → increased holding costs for gold → institutional reduction of long positions in gold.

The pricing dynamics of the gold market are undergoing a structural shift. The impact of the US-Iran conflict on gold prices is no longer a simple case of "safe-haven buying" driving up values; instead, it operates through a complex transmission chain: oil prices → inflation → Federal Reserve policy.

Overall, the cooling of CPI has temporarily brought about a short-term technical rebound in gold prices. However, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the dual pressure of inflation risks in the Middle East remain, so gold has not yet entered a sustained bullish trend. In the short term, it should be viewed as a range-bound market.

Based on the 4-hour chart, the short-term downward momentum in gold may pause, leading to a rebound as the market battles around the $4,000 level. To sustain this, the price needs to hold the support zone near $4,023–$4,045, while the trend line area of ​​$4,097–$4,126 remains a zone of strong resistance.

In terms of price range, Bitcoin has fluctuated intraday between $61,794 and $63,063, yet the strength of the rebound remains limited. Previously, the price faced selling pressure above $64,200, subsequently pulling back rapidly toward the lower bound of the July trading range.

Monday's short-term trend continued its downward trend. We can consider shorting again when the price rebounds and encounters resistance. The key resistance level to watch is around 4080-4090. The first support level to watch is the 4000 level, and the stronger support level is the 3950 level.Tomorrow, Tuesday, the CPI will be the key turning point this week. If inflation is higher than expected, gold prices will likely continue to test the support level of 3950. However, once inflation cools down significantly, the bulls are expected to rebound and retest the 4120 level.Currently, gold is experiencing a weak and volatile market dominated by negative interest rate factors and escalating geopolitical tensions. It is unlikely that the bulls will be able to completely reverse the trend in the short term. Therefore, the direction of the trend will need to be confirmed after the release of US inflation data this week.

Do not chase the downside; wait for a rebound that fails to break through resistance before shorting.

Attention should focus on this week's CPI inflation data and whether shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate. Gold has a chance to reclaim the $4,091–$4,123 resistance zone only if CPI data falls short of expectations, driving real yields lower; conversely, if oil prices surge again, the market will remain focused on inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.

In terms of trends: Gold is more likely to fall than rise, the downward trend remains unchanged, and the price is well below the 200-day moving average, indicating that short-term bearish forces are in control.

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