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Alexander Korn 5 May 2023

S&P500 - Positive scenario prevails!

Last week I still had the correction on the chart, now I am assuming a direct "march through" towards 5,400 points and even then I only expect a moderate correction. This is because a positive divergence has formed in the "advanced/declineline". Roughly speaking, this indicator shows the market breadth and has expanded to a new high. At the same time, the S&P500 has not (yet) managed to do so. However, this divergence was the "tip of the scales", which is why I expect a clear continuation of the upward trend. It is interesting to note that it is no longer the technology stocks that are generating the momentum, but rather the representatives of the sectors: Energy, Utilities, Materials, Industry and Communication Services. What is particularly exciting here is the "utilities" theme, behind which the "smart grid or energy infrastructure" theme also lies.

S&P500 - Positive scenario prevails!image
S&P500 - Positive scenario prevails!

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - patience is a virtue!

Compared to gold or shares, for example, Bitcoin is still more or less an "asset class baby". Cryptocurrencies are also attracting many young investors. Young people are characterized by a lot of courage and strength. However, young people are also impatient. Bitcoin is forming a very nice correction scenario that would end with a weekly close above 70,000 U.S. dollars. Young investors find it difficult to watch, because they are used to fast and powerful movements and not this kind of pushing and shoving. I see a very positive scenario for this year, I am fully invested and will wait patiently for the breakout.

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - patience is a virtue!image
Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - patience is a virtue!

New Sectors ahead

Important figures for my portfolio are due this week, some second-tier tech stocks (chip & AI stocks), which have outperformed the market in recent weeks, will show whether this part of my portfolio remains invested. The relative strength of technology stocks (especially Big Tech) means that they are no longer investments. What is exciting is the utilities sector, which has not shown any signs of life for a long time, but is apparently being rediscovered by the major analyst firms, with Goldman Sachs publishing two detailed studies with the following headlines:- "Electrify Now: Powering Up Europe: AI, Datacenters, and Electrification to Drivec. 40% Growth in Electricity Consumption"- "Generational Growth: AI, Data Centers and the Coming US Power Demand Surge"At its core, this is about the energy requirements of the AI trend, so it's no surprise that some utility stocks have made it onto my watchlist. In addition to the increased growth prospects, they currently offer low valuations and, in some cases, attractive dividends. It's not just chart technicians who are taking advantage of this. This example is another wonderful example of the "power" of technical analysis, which picks up on the first signs of new sector trends a few weeks before the analysts' studies are published.If you want to know more about the analyses, just write a comment, if you are interested I will add a new article.#charting #KI #coaching #supervision #wealthmanagement

New Sectors aheadimage
New Sectors ahead

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - bull scenario active

Bitcoin has exhausted its correction scenario to the depths this week. The strong reaction now makes the bull scenario active and the next target is the 84,000 U.S. dollar mark. I will now increase my investment quota to 100%. I am invested in Avalanche, Worldcoin, Litecoin an Ethereum. I have based my selection on their relative strength compared to Bitcoin. The specific characteristics of the individual cryptocurrencies do not play any role for me. The "driver" of the crypto theme for me remains supply and demand, which works purely according to psychological factors. Please note the risk warnings in my previous posts.#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #Portfoliomanagement #Coaching #Supervision

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - bull scenario activeimage
Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - bull scenario active

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - Bullish alternative on the cards!

The weekly chart of Bitcoin currently shows slowly decreasing volatility over the week. This phenomenon of decreasing volatility in a consolidation is very positive, and if you want to read up on it, Traderfox has an exciting article on this: https://traderfox.com/wissen/klassiche-charttechnik/volatility-contraction-pattern-vcp/p-901. For this reason, I am currently still primarily assuming a further consolidation, but if a dynamic week with a strong rise comes, I will change the scenarios and assume a dynamic rise with a somewhat later further consolidation. As already described, I will also time my entry into alternative cryptocurrencies according to my crypto scenario. Please see my previous posts on the risk of cryptocurrencies! #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrencies #PrivateBanking #Coaching #Supervision

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - Bullish alternative on the cards!image
Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - Bullish alternative on the cards!

My Investment Week

Last week was mixed to slightly positive on the markets. Sentiment has cooled to such an extent that there are signs of a delicate bottoming out and I have slightly reduced my liquidity ratio. What is exciting is that on my sector radar, technology stocks are still in troubled waters and industrials and now also materials are showing strength and momentum. It shows the more differentiated perception of equities on the market and confirms my somewhat broader sector focus outside "AI". At the same time, Chinese equities are also showing signs of life, which fits in well with the commodities sector. However, this also shows how much the media mainstream differs from market movements, as the German media in particular are still talking strongly about recession and a weak China. Fortunately, I don't have to answer the question "Who is right now?" for myself, but am following the market and expanding my investments again somewhat, including a closely hedged index investment. The figures season, which is continuing at full speed, will show whether the trend towards the "old economy" will continue and whether it is just a "selective tec trend" or whether the quarterly figures will trigger a deeper correction. My caution is mainly based on the fact that the sentiment indicators are already buyable, but not in my favored "panic zone". #stockmarket#investmentroutine#trading#coach#wealthmanagement

My Investment Weekimage
My Investment Week

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - Volatile, but strong!

Bitcoin once again tested the 60,000 U.S. dollar mark this week and buying interest reappeared. However, it is far too early to speak of a final bottom formation, as turnover remains low on up and down days. This shows that the crypto market as a whole needs a new impulse, currently with a high probability of another downward trend, which is still absolutely healthy up to a level of around 55,000 U.S. dollars. Of course, the smaller currencies would then fall even lower. My remaining liquidity is waiting for buying opportunities in Ethereum, Avalanche, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Worldcoin and VeChain. However, I am entering these coins purely on the basis of Bitcoin's signals. Please refer to my previous articles on the risks of cryptocurrencies!Hashtag#BitcoinHashtag#RiskassetsHashtag#CoachingHashtag#Chartanalysis

Bitcoin & cryptocurrencies - Volatile, but strong!

Back to Basic!

In times of a strong correction, I always look at my trading system. This conscious return to the basic strategy strengthens me psychologically for two scenarios.Scenario 1 "The ideal trading buy" (currently my primary scenario) with a test of the 30-week average of my basic index S&P500 with a rise in volume at a turning point on a weekly basis. This means again: look for sector leaders, select stocks, increase the investment ratio towards 100%.Scenario 2 "Phase change" An unmotivated rebound with no significant pressure and thus the risk of switching to phase 3. This neutral phase can either lead to a sideways movement in which I trade individual setups or outside the equity market (e.g. precious metals/commodities), but keep tight risk hedges and always maintain a liquidity ratio. This phase can either lead to a new phase 2 or the whole scenario can turn towards liquidity and short investments with a phase 4.This awareness of the options prevents me from sticking to my desired scenario and letting myself be driven by the news, but instead looking exclusively at the only two relevant facts that exist for me when investing in such phases: Price and volume.P.S. Stan Weinstein's book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" (source of the charts) is more relevant than ever, despite or perhaps because of its historical age of 36 years.

Back to Basic!