S&P 500, Nasdaq100, and Russell 2000
The S&P 500 successfully tested its previous high at 5,670 points. At this level, buyers consistently entered the market. Therefore, my forecast from last week remains: both a cosmetic correction down to 5,615 points and a direct continuation of the upward move towards the 6,000-point mark are possible. Greed and optimism are high, but there’s still room for more, as indicated by the CNN Fear and Greed Index.
Bitcoin
Skepticism is growing among many "crypto enthusiasts" because they are not used to this prolonged sideways movement. Usually, the price action is more dynamic, but Bitcoin is increasingly in institutional hands. This means, in my view, that the movements are becoming slower—at least by crypto standards. I still have some liquidity on the sidelines and expect to invest it in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has established a higher low, and now all that's missing is an impulsive trend break for a full trend reversal. At the same time, there’s renewed activity in alternative coins, indicating that Bitcoin could be an attractive option once central banks start printing money again. A new wave of debt is looming to "print away" the inevitable recession, making Bitcoin & Co. an interesting option to protect one's money value, especially against further inflationary trends.I have increased my investment quota, and since Bitcoin appears to be the most stable, I have expanded my position. If an impulsive breakout occurs and alternative coins follow, I may consider reallocating my investments.
Special Topic China Stocks
After the Chinese indices were in a downtrend for a long time, the Chinese dragon has awakened with a "bang." The interest rate cut and various investment programs by the Chinese central bank and government organizations for real estate and stocks are reminiscent of Alan Greenspan, who started to officially intervene in the financial markets after Lehman.In my view, the Chinese are not dogmatic and are quite willing to import successful models. The use of one's currency and printing money to strengthen the country is more than common in the West, so why not in China? I consider this trend reversal to be sustainable, even if I expect a certain pullback after this impulsive breakout. I'm not alone in this view, as this article about a US hedge fund manager also indicates: https://lnkd.in/dwsf9ravDespite the euphoria, it’s important to note that political risks from tensions between China and the USA still exist. Therefore, my position in Chinese stocks will never exceed the 10% mark of my portfolio unless it’s driven by price gains. The chart shows that investors have followed this breakout, investing in major Chinese ETFs (such as the Krane Internet Stocks ETF). Among them are likely some hedge funds that were caught off guard and now have to cover their short positions.My focus is on large Chinese companies and European firms with significant stakes in Chinese companies. My scenario is that the second gap will close, offering another buying opportunity. The first gap, in my view, will remain open as a "runaway gap."
S&P 500, Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000
While last week it looked as if the US indices would simply ignore the weak seasonal period until mid-October, the daily candles of the last three days on all three indices I monitor show that they are likely to test the 10-week moving average. Should stronger downward momentum emerge, it could even go as far as the 30-week line - but this is clearly the alternative scenario. Specifically, I expect a small reduction in the overbought market situation on the S&P 500 up to the short-term uptrend in the region of 5,580 points.The positive underlying trend towards the end of the year remains in place for all three indices. The Chinese central bank provided a strong stimulus this week. In addition to the FED and the ECB, the Chinese central bank is now a new player actively intervening in the financial markets. In addition to interest rate cuts, various measures were also adopted, such as a quota for real estate and equity investments. In my view, this clearly falls into the category of “learning from the best”. After all, why should only the US dollar be used as a “financial weapon”? With Chinese share prices rising again, these securities are also becoming a kind of currency that can be used in corporate takeovers - a practice that has long been standard for US companies.In the USA, my focus continues to be on stable individual stocks, which are also holding up better in this setback. It is also interesting to note that commodity stocks in the US have shown renewed strength. I am curious to see whether a stock will come to the fore here, although they currently seem too volatile and not (yet) trend-stable to me. I have unwound my portfolio hedges despite the expectation of a correction, as my risk budget was exhausted and my stocks showed a relatively low susceptibility to correction. Should the correction start with more momentum instead of being as sluggish as it is at present, I may open a partial portfolio hedge via the S&P 500. However, my main focus is rather on smaller portfolio optimizations in the context of the expected correction with almost full investment.
S&P 500, Nasdaq100, and Russell 2000
This week was a true rollercoaster ride in the stock markets. Ahead of the interest rate decision, I hedged about one-third of my portfolio, which prevented me from fully benefiting from the positive euphoria following the rate decision. I plan to close this position by Tuesday at the latest, provided the stock markets continue to react positively to the rate decision early in the week.
Bitcoin
Euphoria and extreme fear alternate weekly with Bitcoin. However, my main scenario remains that the short-term uptrend will still be reached at around 47,000 U.S. dollars. At this level, I will build a position, possibly also in particularly heavily sold Bitcoin alternatives. After that, I expect another breakout attempt in the region of 73,000 U.S. dollars. Will it happen like this? I don't know, but in such volatile markets, I need a clear scenario that I derive from chart analysis and existing trends. This way, I can enter the next trading week relaxed, because I have a roadmap in this wild "crypto world".
S&P 500, Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000
There is either an express scenario for the S&P500, which is currently my primary scenario. In this scenario, we still see a slight correction to the short-term uptrend and then a push to new highs above 5,670 points. A flat “cup with handle” formation is forming on the daily chart. This very strong formation has a cap at 5,670 points; if it is overtraded on a daily closing basis, I will take a long position with a target of 6,025 points.The Nasdaq100 has not yet admitted defeat and has regained strength against the S&P500 this week and is now in neutral territory. In the U.S. sectors, the defensive sectors “Real Estate” and “Utilities” are still in the lead, but this week “Technology” is ahead with a performance of 7.66 %. As this is a U.S. election year, there is a high probability that technology stocks will make a comeback, as the high weighting in the indices means that a rise in this sector is almost inevitable for a positive end to the year. I am currently still underweight here, but if the return to relative strength is successful, I will overweight the technology sector at the end of the year.Everything is going according to plan for the Russell2000, even if the relative strength against the S&P500 and the Nasdaq100 has waned again. In such phases, when the sector trend diverges so widely between offensive and defensive sectors, I focus on good individual stock settings. If you are interested in the details, you can read the stock selection criteria at Traderfox: https://lnkd.in/dV56c2r4 The basic scenario therefore remains positive, but it is unclear whether the cyclical or defensive sectors will lead the next breakout. What do you think? Share your opinions and experiences in the comments!
Bitcoin - Price target 48,000 U.S. dollars
The most likely scenario for me is therefore the next upward trend at around 48,000 U.S. dollars. My liquidity planned for cryptocurrency investments will remain “in the dry” until this point and only then will I take a closer look at other cryptocurrency pairs and crypto stocks. Patience is the top priority here.#Bitcoin #Kryptowährungen #Marktanalyse #Coaching #Blockchain
S&P 500, Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000: Focus on changing favorites 📊🔄
- S&P500: Critical zone 5,300 - 5,200 points in view- Nasdaq100: No longer relatively stronger than S&P500 for the first time since May 2023- Russell2000: Shows strength against S&P500 againMy strategy:- S&P500 hedge since last week, planned unwind in the next few weeks- Focus on single stock setups instead of strong sector focus- Technology sector currently “only” one of manyInteresting developments:- Defensive sectors (consumer goods, pharma, utilities, real estate) rotate into the foreground- Bullish divergence in market breadth argues against a significant break below 5,200 points in the S&P500Outlook:- Expected positive market development in the hot phase of the U.S. election campaign- Stronger sector focus in sight for the first half of 2025How do you see the current market situation? Share your thoughts in the comments! 💬#TechnicalAnalysis #WealthManagement #MarketRotation #SP500 #Nasdaq100 #Coaching
