S&P 500, Nasdaq100, Russell 2000, Bitcoin & Co!
The content of this post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware that all investments involve risk, and individual consultation is recommended.
China
The impact of the U.S. election on China is often overestimated. The BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are clearly larger and more significant than Europe or Japan. These markets are not saturated and are crucial for companies like Coca Cola. China's recent monetary policy measures, after years of sluggish growth, have reinforced its ambition to reclaim the position it held in the 19th century. Such significant turning points take time to develop and cannot be resolved in just a few weeks.As long as the volume profile of one of the key China equity ETFs remains positive and U.S. investors buy more in positive phases than they sell in negative ones, I consider this market intact. I am gradually building positions in strong Chinese stocks, but they will not exceed 10% of my portfolio. This caution is due to living in Western countries that have aggressively intervened in the capital markets, effectively rendering Russian stocks worthless for private investors. In the battle of global ideologies, this could pose a significant risk to my capital. I view cryptocurrencies similarly in this regard.(Personal opinion - no advice - no recommendation to buy securities - no financial advice)
Bitcoin
The first attempt to establish a new all-time high was unsuccessful, but I anticipate a second attempt soon. As long as Bitcoin holds above the 64,000 USD mark, all possibilities remain open. The market sentiment was overly euphoric, but this is currently subsiding. I remain invested but won’t be expanding my investments in crypto stocks for now. My bullish scenario remains intact.(Personal opinion - no advice - no recommendation to buy securities - no financial advice)
S&P 500, Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000
This week was in line with my primary scenario of a correction. Next week is “crunch time” as exciting corporate earnings are due and there will be a little more clarity on who will be U.S. President for the next four years. This points to further volatility and I expect a test of the 30-week moving average, which is also the short-term uptrend. For the S&P 500, this is in the region of 5,500 points. I expect a positive interim reaction here, which could serve as a prelude to a move towards 6,500 points.If the price falls below this level on a weekly closing basis, the secondary scenario will be activated, which envisages a test of the longer-term upward trend around 5,000 points. I do not expect the Nasdaq100 and Russell2000 to take on a strong life of their own this week and expect a similar development to the S&P 500. If the level around 5,500 points is reached, I plan to unwind my partial portfolio hedge.Whether we will know more clearly by the end of next week where the year-end spurt is heading depends on whether there is a clear decision on the outcome of the presidential election.It should also be noted that the U.S. government bond yield has now risen above the dividend yield again. In addition, retail investors in the USA are more optimistic than ever before about the stock market trend over the next 12 months - both are warning signals for the medium-term trend, but not (yet) a reason not to follow the positive trends in individual stocks.(Personal opinion - no advice - no recommendation to buy securities - no financial advice)
Check out my weekly Substack newsletter on capital markets, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies!
Are you interested in the latest developments in financial markets, the dynamics of precious metals like gold or silver, and movements in the crypto market? Then my newsletter is just what you need!
China
Pessimism around Chinese stocks is high. Naturally, I’m not a fan of a capitalist stock market within a communist system, especially considering how Russian ADRs became nearly worthless for regular investors. I see similar risks with Chinese stocks, particularly in the event of conflicts between China and the U.S. in the Pacific. That's why I will limit my exposure to Chinese stocks to 10% of my portfolio.
Bitcoin
Last week, it was just a hint, but this week the downtrend has been broken, and the year-end rally seems ready to take off. If this upward move continues next week and Bitcoin sustainably breaks the 70,000 US dollar level, I believe the path to the psychological milestone of 100,000 US dollars is clear. If this happens, I will increase my cryptocurrency investments to 100% and also start considering stocks related to cryptocurrencies for my investment strategy.
S&P 500, Nasdaq100, and Russell 2000
The U.S. election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and the S&P 500 clearly seems determined to reach the 6,000 mark before the election. From my perspective, the election outcome is less important than the process of declaring a winner. The market dislikes uncertainty, and the depth of any post-election correction will depend on how quickly a winner is confirmed. Trump currently leads in the polls, and his campaign promises suggest he would likely continue driving the markets, given his plan to spend roughly four times as much as Harris.
S&P 500, Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000
In short, the S&P 500 continues to move higher and the next target is the 6,000 mark. There will probably be a pause at this level, and if it continues like this, this year will be the best since 2000. It is interesting to note that the Nasdaq 100 is in neutral territory in terms of relative strength against the S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 is actually slightly weaker in this statistic.Of course, there are a number of warning signs that this bull market is overbought. It is worth noting that insider buying has fallen to its lowest level since Covid. In the US fund manager survey, the bears are at an all-time low and the investment ratio of small speculators in the US has never been so bullish since 1988.In normal market phases and without the strong months of a US election year, I would not wait for my stops to take effect, but realize profits. Why am I not doing this? The charts continue to show an upward trend and corrections are at most back to the level of the 21- or 50-day moving average. In short: healthy charts! Next week is the start of the reporting season, and if a correction - the alternative scenario - occurs, that would be very healthy.Nevertheless, I expect a volatile but direct continuation of the upward movement. In this investment cycle, where there are more and more equity experts and advisors, any pre-emptive risk management is detrimental to performance. Enthusiasm for the stock market is increasingly driven by greed - with the MSCI World up more than 15%. The focus is no longer on the “Magnificent 7”, but on strong individual stocks from sectors that are benefiting from renewed interest rate cuts and rising debt - this applies to many sectors. The magic word will be “government support programs for infrastructure investments”.The phase in which institutional investors are repeatedly (rightly) skeptical, while the “small speculators” are increasingly right, is the phase of the “milkmaid bull market”. I am curious to see whether my assessment of the cycle is correct, as it was in 1998-2000. It would be a good time and could last quite a long time.Despite my bullish scenario, I hedge my profits relatively tightly and continuously and focus on individual stock setups, because greed and fear are the worst advisors on the stock market.
S&P 500, Nasdaq100, and Russell 2000
The S&P 500 successfully tested its previous high at 5,670 points. At this level, buyers consistently entered the market. Therefore, my forecast from last week remains: both a cosmetic correction down to 5,615 points and a direct continuation of the upward move towards the 6,000-point mark are possible. Greed and optimism are high, but there’s still room for more, as indicated by the CNN Fear and Greed Index.
