S&P500/Nasdaq 100: Detour likely

Both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq100 have attempted a direct trend continuation, but failed in the last trading week. This has significantly increased the probability of my primary scenario. However, the upward trend in both indices is clearly intact, the only question is whether the bottom is already in at the 10-week average or only at the 30-week average. Looking at the CNN Fear and Greed Index and taking into account that the normal summer lethargy does not tend to occur in election years, I also believe that a volatile sideways movement is likely, in which the shares within the indices develop quite differently. This is because the "fear indicator" is still far removed from "greed" and therefore also offers potential for increases in the coming months.

Bitcoin / cryptocurrencies - 84,000 or 44,000 US dollars?

Nervousness on the crypto market is on the rise. An exemplary double top has formed, which will be activated if the price falls impulsively below the USD 56,000 mark and sets a price target at USD 44,000. At the same time, Bitcoin is in an upward trend. As long as the USD 56,000 mark holds, my direct bull scenario remains in place. Below this level, an attractive scenario for me is activated. If this upward trend is tested and holds, I see a direct impulsive scenario. For some traders this is of course fatal and they will panic. I would like that very much because it would clear the market. My portfolio is invested and of course this would have a very negative impact on the current value, on the other hand it is also an opportunity for me to invest in shares in this sector, for example, which would then probably also be available for sale.#Bitcoin #cryptocurrenciesHashtag#cryptoHashtag#BTCHashtag#portfoliomanagementHashtag#altcoinsHashtag#coaching

How the Magnificent 7 and tech companies are transforming the old economy

How the Magnificent 7 and tech companies are transforming the old economy In the current phase of digital transformation, we are seeing a significant redistribution of capital in the global economy. My recent cartoon (source of course ChatGPT) illustrates how the so-called "Magnificent 7" - a group of leading tech companies - and other players in the tech industry are siphoning off massive amounts of money from traditional old economy companies. This dynamic is further intensified by the increasing importance of artificial intelligence (AI) and other innovative technologies. The old economy, consisting of traditional industries such as automotive, mechanical engineering and consumer goods, is being forced to invest huge sums in digitalization and the integration of AI technologies. This need for transformation is unavoidable in order to remain competitive in the modern, technology-driven world. The tech giants play a central role in this by providing not only technological solutions, but also the necessary expertise and infrastructure. So at the moment, company profits are moving in line with share prices, so no bubble yet, or what do you think? There is also good research from Goldman Sachs that underpins this development once again with figures.

📈 S&P500/Nasdaq 100: Correction and then straight on after the big expiry day?

The end of the trading week was a big expiry day, and some shorts apparently had to be covered all week. Individual stocks, especially from the technology sector, showed strong price volatility. This was also evident on the last trading day with an upward fuse. On the other hand, some institutional investors apparently only extended their short positions, as the index fell again towards the end. I assume that there will be a few more openings of short positions next week, which could lead to a fall to the 10-week line. That would be about a 4% correction, the secondary correction scenario would be a maximum 10% correction of the index.The dynamics and above all the volume after the first trading days of the "Magnificent 7" will be relevant for me, but at present this correction is no reason for me to reduce my investment quota with a focus on technology. I will simply continue to review my positions and make sure that my shares do not produce any price gaps and do not become too volatile.The Nasdaq100 also shows this picture, and the divergence between price development and market breadth (A/D indicator) mentioned last week is, to my astonishment, diminishing in such a way that the market breadth is rising again and not the market falling. Also, despite all-time highs, greed is very low and I expect a brief dip into fear territory, which is a buy signal for me on the CNN fear and greed indicator.

🚀 Bitcoin / cryptocurrencies - continuing towards 60,000 US dollars

Bitcoin and the altcoins continue to be nervous and volatile. For me, this is a clear sign that cryptocurrencies have not yet bottomed out and that we are likely to experience a major shake-out. Because with every week that sees no upward breakout, the often inexperienced investors become more nervous, and the big market players want to take advantage of this to take shares away from the "weak hands" before the next upward impulse. I remain fully invested and am preparing myself psychologically for this event, it wouldn't be the first time.Hashtag#BitcoinHashtag#cryptocurrenciesHashtag#cryptoHashtag#BTCHashtag#portfoliomanagementHashtag#altcoinsHashtag#coachingStrategic fundamental opinion on cryptocurrencies as a speculative asset:https://lnkd.in/daskXYkX

📈 S&P500/Nasdaq 100: Divergences

The S&P500 and the Nasdaq100 have both broken out to new all-time highs on high volumes. While the S&P 500 has a small correction potential up to around 5,200 points and only then is the path upwards towards 5,766 points clear, the Nasdaq100 has a direct path towards 20,963 points. Last week's 50:50 scenario has resolved itself in a positive sense. The Nasdaq100 has continued to build up high relative strength against the S&P500 and the DAX.So much for the positives. The fact that this upswing stands on rather "feet of clay" is shown by the continuing sharp decline in market breadth. This rise is therefore being driven primarily by the major U.S. technology stocks, while many others are rather weak. Not a good basis for a solid rise. Due to this divergence, strict adherence to the risk thresholds is called for. Such a divergence can last longer and it seems that many institutional investors are too negative about the market and are therefore underinvested. In addition, there is a fundamentally positive cyclicality due to the U.S. election year.So my primary scenario is positive, but I am ready to go into risk management mode at any time. The "CNN Fear and Greed Index" is still in the low range, which shows that despite the all-time high, few trust this rise. That is why I remain invested exclusively in relatively strong stocks that are not prone to major fluctuations and may expand here.Hashtag#TradingHashtag#SP500Hashtag#Nasdaq100Hashtag#ChartanalysisHashtag#FearAndGreedIndexHashtag#Wealthmanagement

🚀 Bitcoin / cryptocurrencies - Will we see the 60,000 U.S. dollar as planned?

As expected last week, Bitcoin continues to move in its triangle. My scenario remains that it will once again touch the 60,000 U.S. dollar mark, as nothing is going up at the moment. However, this is no reason to empty my crypto portfolio, as the upward scenario is clearly intact and the transaction costs for trades are high. That's why I'm staying calm and reviewing my invested cryptocurrencies when the breakout comes. I will then select the coins with the best momentum when the breakout occurs.

Turnaround on the last trading day brings back positive scenario

This week initially looked like ending on a negative note, which fueled fears of a stronger correction. However, on the last trading day, the S&P 500 was able to defend its upward trend impressively and formed a striking “hammer candle”. This reinforces my positive primary scenario that the index will continue to rise towards 5,766 points. In the USA, the technology sector gained relative strength, as did the utilities and communication services sectors. In contrast, the previously strong Industrials and Materials sectors showed weakness. I plan to reinvest the liquidity freed up by stop-loss measures in my existing investments and in stocks that have remained particularly stable during the correction. Whether U.S.A. or Europe is irrelevant given the current small difference in relative strength.

🚀 Bitcoin update: patience required amid increasing volatility

Despite expectations, Bitcoin has so far shown no signs of wanting to break through the USD 74,000 mark. This increases the likelihood that Bitcoin could retest its upward trend at around USD 59,000. In the slipstream of the leading cryptocurrency, other cryptocurrencies could also fall temporarily. However, I remain invested as I believe a bullish triangle is forming, which makes a breakout seem only a matter of time. Despite the expected volatility, I recommend remaining calm and holding existing positions. It seems relatively unlikely to me that cryptocurrencies, which have so far shown relative strength against Bitcoin, will collapse significantly. 

S&P500 - Positive scenario prevails!

Last week I still had the correction on the chart, now I am assuming a direct "march through" towards 5,400 points and even then I only expect a moderate correction. This is because a positive divergence has formed in the "advanced/declineline". Roughly speaking, this indicator shows the market breadth and has expanded to a new high. At the same time, the S&P500 has not (yet) managed to do so. However, this divergence was the "tip of the scales", which is why I expect a clear continuation of the upward trend. It is interesting to note that it is no longer the technology stocks that are generating the momentum, but rather the representatives of the sectors: Energy, Utilities, Materials, Industry and Communication Services. What is particularly exciting here is the "utilities" theme, behind which the "smart grid or energy infrastructure" theme also lies.