S&P 500, Nasdaq100 and Russell 2000 - break of the short-term downtrend, gradually build up positions
I formulated these two options last week:Option 1: The correction is complete and the 5,500 point mark is overtraded at the end of the week and the daily volume also goes with the rise. On this basis, I will then select and invest in the leading sectors and stocks of this movement.Option 2: In my view, the best option for the sustainability of the trend. After rising to the 4,400-4,500 point region, the downward movement develops a second, stronger downward leg to the 4,800 to 4,900 point region. In this region I will then select the sectors and stocks that have held up relatively well and then invest the first positions. The stocks that recover relatively dynamically after a sell-off are also interesting.After a strong week, it looks very much like option 1, because on the one hand the downward trend was overtraded and on the other hand the volume was also decent, even if not stronger than in the sell-off the week before last. In addition, a positive divergence can be seen in the market breadth (A/D line), which has marked a new all-time high, while the S&P500 has not yet managed to do so.Is option 2 completely off the table? No! A sharp countermovement is quite common after such sell-offs. Nevertheless, I will continue to focus my investments on option 1. In principle, I would have tended to focus on index investments with option 2, but conversely I will be looking for individual share investments in the coming week, which on the one hand were relatively stable during the downward movement, but on the other hand also picked up again in the last trading week. It is important that I follow the market, but do not chase after it, but cautiously build up my investment quota.The same scenario applies to the Nasdaq100 and the index is also of interest to me in my search for individual investments, as it has regained its relative strength against the S&P500. The index is less interesting for me, but rather the individual stocks with the first-mentioned criteria.The U.S. small cap index Russell 2000 was unable to maintain its relative strength against the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 and is therefore only the second priority for my stock selection. Nevertheless, this index also has the opportunity to chase records towards the end of the year.If the last two trading days were just a false breakout, I will act again according to option 2 and stop the successive expansion of investments, but without selling in a hurry.
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