S&P 500, Nasdaq100, and Russell 2000

U.S. Election on November 5, 2024, and the S&P 500 aiming for the 6,000 mark

The U.S. election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and the S&P 500 clearly seems determined to reach the 6,000 mark before the election. From my perspective, the election outcome is less important than the process of declaring a winner. The market dislikes uncertainty, and the depth of any post-election correction will depend on how quickly a winner is confirmed. Trump currently leads in the polls, and his campaign promises suggest he would likely continue driving the markets, given his plan to spend roughly four times as much as Harris.

A potential correction could be driven by the fact that U.S. households and foreign investors currently hold large portions of U.S. equities. I categorize these groups as "nervous hands," and I expect a correction either just before or after the election to alleviate the overbought market conditions.

For now, I remain nearly fully invested, focusing outside of the "Magnificent 7," as these stocks have ambitious valuations. Instead, I find less volatile and more stable investments in the second and third tiers of U.S. stocks that fit my selection criteria. Regionally, my focus remains on U.S. stocks with a small addition of Chinese equities.