NBIS: The Phoenix from Yandex

A deep dive into the $2.5B tech spin-off that resumed trading after 2 years of halt

After more than two years of trading halt, NBIS (formerly YNDX) finally resumed trading on October 21st. While the stock initially dropped at the opening, it showed remarkable resilience and surged nearly 30% by the end of the after-hours session on October 22nd. This price action sparked my interest to share a detailed analysis of the company.

Having invested in Yandex for several years with considerable profits, I have firsthand experience with this team's capabilities. I personally know these people - they are among the brightest minds who built Yandex from scratch in the late 90s into one of the most successful tech companies in Eastern Europe. 

Nebius Group is led by Arkady Volozh, the tech entrepreneur and visionary co-founder of Yandex
Nebius Group is led by Arkady Volozh, the tech entrepreneur and visionary co-founder of Yandex

Nebius Group emerged from the split of Yandex into fully independent business units, with the international operations forming a separate entity.

Key Financials & Metrics:

  • Revenue Q2 2024: $24.9M (430% YoY growth from $4.7M)
  • Operating loss: $122.4M in Q2 2024
  • Cash position: $2.5B with zero debt (post-July 2024 divestment)
  • Cloud ARR: $80M+ (as of July 2024)
  • CapEx: $161.6M in Q2 2024
  • Cash burn: $137.3M operating cash outflow in Q2
  • Total shares outstanding: 199M (post-divestment)

💪 Strengths:

  • Led by original Yandex founders and early team members who built a tech giant from scratch in the late 90s;
  • Significant cash reserves for growth initiatives;
  • Clear focus on AI infrastructure and cloud services;
  • Q2 2024 showed strong growth: Cloud revenue up 60% QoQ;
  • Notable clients including Mistral AI and JetBrains;
  • Expanding data center capacity in Finland and new facility in Paris.

⚠️ Challenges:

  • $0 in funding from the parent company (and any government support whatsoever);
  • Heavy investment phase: Significant CapEx needed for GPU and data center expansion;
  • Need to prove they can compete in Western markets.

🎯 Core Business Units:

  1. Nebius AI - cloud infrastructure for AI workloads;
  2. Toloka AI - AI development and training platform (80% revenue from GenAI projects, 5x QoQ growth);
  3. TripleTen - EdTech focusing on tech career training (targeting $60M run-rate bookings by year-end);
  4. Avride - autonomous driving technology.

Why I'm considering increasing my position for a 3-5 year hold:

  1. The team has proven their ability to build and scale tech businesses;
  2. Growing AI infrastructure market with high barriers to entry;
  3. Strong balance sheet supports growth strategy;
  4. Current market position may not reflect full potential.

That said, this is a high-risk investment. The team needs to prove they can succeed in a very different market environment, competing against established Western players.

What are your thoughts on NBIS? Anyone else following this story or invested in the company?


nbis
yndx
ai
startup
fundamental-analysis
business-analysis
Share icon

to activate earnings with sharing

Comments
Oct 23 Edited
Thanks for sharing. For me looks this interesting at the Black Swan rebound 127 / ~10.21 https://takeprofit.com/chart/01JAVZZ4AYWH21VPZB9F41S0CD

If the low from 2015 isn't breached, it's possible that we may enter a third wave. (min. 152) https://takeprofit.com/chart/01JAVZZ4AYWH21VPZB9F41S0CD
to
Oct 23
Can we analyze the chart from a technical analysis standpoint? After all, today we have a completely different company with a different business profile, and the previous market data belongs to the old company, from which the new one emerged