MTC HURST VTL

MTC Hurst VTL — Valid Trendlines for TakeProfit

This indicator automatically draws Hurst's Valid Trendlines (VTLs) for three configurable cycle degrees and generates confirmation signals when price breaks through them. VTLs are one of the two core cyclic tools defined by J.M. Hurst (alongside the FLD) and are used to confirm that cycle peaks or troughs have formed in price.

Part of the MTC Hurst Cycle Analysis Suite alongside MTC Hurst Diamond, MTC Hurst FLD, and MTC Hurst Bands.

━━━ WHAT IS A VTL? ━━━

A Valid Trendline is a standard trendline connecting two consecutive troughs or peaks of a specific cycle, validated by Hurst's rules. Unlike subjective trendlines drawn by eye, VTLs are derived directly from identified cycle pivots, removing the need for subjective interpretation.

There are two types:

• Upward VTL — connects two consecutive cycle troughs (lows). The line slopes upward and represents the rising phase of the next longer cycle. When price breaks below this line, it confirms that the peak of the next longer cycle has passed.
• Downward VTL — connects two consecutive cycle peaks (highs). The line slopes downward and represents the falling phase of the next longer cycle. When price breaks above this line, it confirms that the trough of the next longer cycle has passed.

━━━ THE KEY RULE ━━━

A VTL based on cycle N confirms peaks and troughs of cycle 2N (the next longer cycle in the harmonic model).

Examples with default settings (20/40/80):

• • 20-bar VTL break down → Peak of 40-bar cycle confirmed
• 20-bar VTL break up → Trough of 40-bar cycle confirmed
• 40-bar VTL break down → Peak of 80-bar cycle confirmed
• 40-bar VTL break up → Trough of 80-bar cycle confirmed
• 80-bar VTL break down → Peak of 160-bar cycle confirmed
• 80-bar VTL break up → Trough of 160-bar cycle confirmed

━━━ HOW IT WORKS ━━━

The indicator detects swing highs and swing lows for each of the three cycle lengths using a left/right bar pivot algorithm. It then tracks the two most recent troughs and peaks for each cycle.

For upward VTLs, a line is drawn from the previous trough through the current trough and extended to the right edge of the chart. For downward VTLs, the same is done with peaks. Validity is enforced: upward VTLs must actually slope upward, downward VTLs must slope downward.

Break signals are generated when the median price ((High + Low) / 2) crosses through the VTL — following Hurst's specification that median price is used for confirmation.

━━━ BREAK SIGNALS ━━━

Green labels ("Trough X conf.") appear below price when a downward VTL is broken upward — confirming that a trough of the next longer cycle has formed. This is a bullish signal.

Red labels ("Peak X conf.") appear above price when an upward VTL is broken downward — confirming that a peak of the next longer cycle has formed. This is a bearish signal.

━━━ HOW TO READ THE CHART ━━━

1. The colored trendlines (Cyan/Yellow/Orange for cycles 1/2/3) show the current VTLs drawn between the most recent pivot pairs.

2. When a VTL break label appears, the cycle turn has been confirmed. For example, a red "Peak 160 conf." label means the 80-bar VTL was broken downward, confirming that the 160-bar cycle has peaked. Expect a decline into the 160-bar cycle trough.

3. After a trough confirmation (green label), look for long entries on shorter timeframes. After a peak confirmation (red label), look for short entries or exits.

4. Multiple VTL breaks occurring close together (across different cycle degrees) strengthen the signal significantly.

━━━ SETTINGS ━━━

• Cycle 1/2/3 Length: Configure the three cycle degrees (default: 20/40/80, following Hurst's nominal model)
• Show Upward VTLs: Toggle trough-to-trough VTL lines
• Show Downward VTLs: Toggle peak-to-peak VTL lines
• Show Break Signals: Toggle the confirmation labels
• Show Info Panel: Display a reference guide in the top-right corner

━━━ TIPS ━━━

• Use with MTC Hurst Diamond to see the full cycle phasing alongside VTL confirmations#
• Use with MTC Hurst FLD for entry timing after a VTL break confirms a cycle turn • VTL breaks usually confirm earlier than FLD crosses, but FLD crosses provide price targets
•  The 20/40/80 default setup works well for daily charts on most markets
•  For crypto on 4h charts, try 10/20/40 or 20/40/80
•  VTL breaks near the expected cycle trough/peak time (from the Diamond indicator) carry the highest confidence