Victors Trading Blog - Extended Version (05.06.2024)

Trading Idea Update

If you followed my last stock trading idea, you'll know that I mentioned higher prices on Broadcast.com. As of today, we reached the second Gap I mentioned in the post, and it seems like the stock will continue expanding to the upside. In cases like this, it depends on whether price closes in or outside a Gap/pricelevel. I'll go into detail in a later educational post, just know this: If it closes outside that Gap, it's likely to expand further to the upside, if not, lower prices can be expected.

Crypto

Let's follow up with Bitcoin today! Bitcoin went down after creating the red ZigZag Pattern, reaching the 1.618 Rebound.

After a quick pullback from that level, we can see a very tight consolidation/accumulation phase, trapping retail traders using two fake moves in both directions. First to the downside, getting all them sellstops, then quickly expanding to the upside into that inverse extended Gap as well as the FVG and then reaching down one more time to even get the last traders, that were still holding on to their positions. 

After that, we see internal range liquidity being taken at the red horizontal line and price expanding higher into that -OB, also pulling back quickly and consolidating. 

Let's now take a better look at that pullback and following consolidation.

Here again, we can identify a ZigZag Pattern. As always, we'll anchor the Fib from top to bottom so that we can see all our targets and Rebounds.

For further price understanding, let's also anchor a Fibonacci from that last price swing lower as it's been a significant sudden drop in price, that has to be rebalanced. 

Imagine prices in the financial markets like a swing. Swing it in one direction, and it will rebalance with similar force in the other direction (in 99.99% of all cases), especially when looking at short term price fluctuations. You'll rarely see price just go in one direction and never return.

Of course Crypto is in that regard an exception and most assets are supposed to go up in value over time, not fluctuate at a random price level, but when looking at price ranges over a couple of minutes to days/weeks, you'll notice, price will always find a way to rebalance irregularities in its movement.

Now, just sit back and enjoy the beauty :)

Let's now go into the higher timeframe and watch what happened after the entry yesterday. Entry was pretty much at the low before the massive expansion towards that higher TF Gaps, nailing the Mean Threshold (MT) perfectly.

You probably know what's coming next...

That's right! ZigZag Pattern! Again very beautiful in accordance with other techniques which increases its likelihood of success.

Also note that fakeout of trendline below, trapping retail traders into believing lower prices will follow, then expaning quickly and triggering their stops almost immediately.

Now, for the perfect entry, let's take that stoprun above the Mean Threshold of that Gap or the return to the -OB for a very nice entry with minimal risk into the direction of the higher timeframe. First price will target those Sellstops. 

After getting the Sellstops, it'll likely reverse for a short period of time and then expand lower.

In the following screenshot we can see SSL being taken with another run deeper, enabling an even better entry (as you're able to enter after a quick rejection in a +OB, also increasing the chances of success)

Another leg into that +OB with a quick rejection. Price retraced into the FVG and also into the +Breaker if you look closely. I know it isn't the most beautiful, but since this is the 1m chart, I'll allow for smaller inaccuracies in price action. 

If you look very closely, you'll see another an +OB, Gap and an Inverse FVG.

Beautiful price delivery into that -OB as annotated beforehand...

Last buying opportunity here at the +OB

Sometimes it's hard annotating everything in time, especially in the 1m chart, but I'm doing my best :) Also, it's not meant for copy trading, but meant for the beginner/intermediate trader who needs to put together the peaces.

If you enjoy reading this blog, the annotations on live charts and stocks/crypto analysis, feel free to follow and comment any outstanding questions.