Victors Trading Blog 10.06.2024

What's up guys! Following up with Bitcoin today! We've ditched into the "resistance level" at around $72k multiple times now. To be honest, I don't like "support/resistance level", I always associate them with retail trading, which isn't really my style since I use other parameters to define my bias/levels/patterns etc. 

What we could see now is a drop from $60400 towards $52k, which would mean we'll get the sellstops left over from the Bitcoin Halving low at the beginning of May (How that came about and why the low formed where it did you can find in my Pre Halving Analysis) and dip into the +OB from the end of February.

For that scenario, there are Pros and Cons, and I'll go over them in the upcoming blogs depending on the price action. 

For now, it's important to know that retailers always think that history repeats itself to the tick, which is not true. Just because there's a Bitcoin Halving doesn't mean Bitcoins going to be more scarce. It's still an inflationary asset. That and a lot of other details in crypto are misunderstood by the masses as they all go to YouTube to do their research and since one YouTuber said it once, many now just repeat the same stuff over and over again. 

Let me assure you, the big banks and hedge funds don't look at the fear and greed index, praised by the masses. Also, it's a lagging indicator (supposedly) displaying emotions of all traders that have already happened. It's nothing forward-looking.

So since there's a bunch of traders just looking for the new ATH it'd make sense to stop them out when they're screaming $100k Bitcoin. Technically speaking it'd make sense to let the price drop to $52000.

On the other hand, that is a very big drop and I don't like big drops and in an uptrend, it's often an indicator for trend weakness. BUT if we go down to $52k nice and slow in a very big consolidation for a couple of months, that would be very healthy imo. 

How it actually plays out will be revealed by the price action over the next couple days/weeks and during that time I'll be looking for shorts on an intraday basis.

To sum everything up: If we break lower into that +OB, this could catapult Bitcoin towards $80k

But be careful, since it's a big correction, we could also break lower. That's why it's important to always keep an eye on the chart. A quick rejection in case of a quick drop down to that level would be the most likely scenario for higher prices, when price comes back down, you'll likely be able to get into Elliott wave 3 using intra patterns, but let's get to that when it happens.

A quick run above the SSL. There's still room until we get to that breaker, so I'll be keeping an eye on higher prices in the short term.

Nice clean pattern with relatively equal highs above $69800. Price rejected the +OB pretty hard and simultaneously got them sellstops, so we'll likely see higher prices.

Break out of that Triangle with a fakeout to the downside.

Keep in mind that when looking for higher prices when a triangle forms, there's a high likelihood of a fakeout to the downside before releasing price to the upside.

Rebounds got hit almost perfectly.

Nice little long right here. ZigZag, +OB & +FVG to the left targeting Target 1, and 2 (since bias is short superordinately speaking)

Drop down to +OB. Also, you could take the 2 downcandles to the left as another OB or couple them and call it higher probability. Nice reentry since we're still in a discount of the dealing range.

Target 2 achieved + rejection at the -OB and -FVG down to the tip of the Triangle. Maybe you remember what I said about Triangles, price likes to return to the extension of the tip which is what we saw here. Also + inversion FVG & +OB