Victors Trading Blog 08.07.2024

Update

Here again the chart I posted at the beginning of June ⬇️

And the chart I posted at the end of last week, mentioning that it would be a nice short if we hadn't come down so much already⬇️

Here's the aftermath:

A very nice immediate selloff after the liquidity run with a -theoretical- drawdown of $426 and a possible max win of $5041.

Even though this is an amazing RRR you still gotta refrain from taking trades you're not comfortable with as they don't contain your minimum risk requirements. 

Even though it would have paid of greatly taking that trade, taking more of those risky trades will hurt you badly in the long run. 

And if you truely are able to find good setups repeadedly, you don't even get emotional about missing a good trade, as you'll just take the next one that comes around :)

To wrap this update up, since this drop brought us down (at its low) to ~$53300 we're about 94% there from my original projection.

If you want to Dollar Cost Average into Bitcoin, now is a better time to start than +$15000 higher.

Of course there are many different ways to do that like at the beginning of each day/week/month etc, but if you DCA with a couple of bags trying to time the market, now is definitely a better time :)

What happened today?

First we dropped down into the +OB. Why did we get a hard rejection at the Order Block you may ask? It's quite simple: After that small down candle a quick expansion to the upside followed, also creating a FVG, making that candle the ideal Order Block.

After another expansion higher to that same scenario just reverse (OB followed by an FVG) we dipped lower, but just briefly, which is a likely scenario after a quick rejection at an Order block. That dip was into the FVG after the +OB that was already "used" for the expansion higher before, but was reclaimed once more to push price higher.

In a scenario like this, it's quite unlikely for price to come down to the Order Block, so you can expect and target that FVG right after to be dipped into. Look for entry scenarios/patterns/formations etc that'll get you an ideal entry.

If you drop down into lower timeframes, you'll see that this was almost an OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) occurring just after the close of the New York Open Session.

Depending on your Risk management and flexibility of the session times, that'd have been a nice trade. However, I'll get into detail about OTE in another Blog.

For now, since we're almost at my short target, a move up to the FVG above the Liquidity Pool (BSL) would be possible, after that a drop lower to my actual target would be possible. But I won't make a certain suggestion, as that can change based on future price action. I'll update you when the time comes!

Thanks for reading!