Victors Trading Blog 04.07.2024

It's been a while since my last blog as I'm in the process of moving from Thailand to Indonesia and spent some time with my family in between. But now I'm back! 

Some Updates

If you follow me on Social Media, you'll have noticed me spreading some "Bitcoin Drop" Charts. Those, to be honest, are not my normal charts but with charts with Harmonic Patterns. 

Here's the chart I posted

Here's how the chart is looking now:

Down to the $52k level is about a 24% drop, which means we're 67% there. This is one of those times when I would like to do a stunning projection/forecast, but I won't as the RR isn't there. 

We're around Equilibrium, and entering a trade at equilibrium is rarely a good idea. In the short term I'd target $57800 if I were in a trade, but again, the short term trade (probably h1 to m15) would also have run about 70% at this time.

Update: We did run down even further shortly after beginning writing this section but went up again which would kinda make me want to short again, if it had been in a premium, which now would be a risky trade as there's plenty of room for an upside retracement.

Let me explain: 

More often than not there's 3 highs before a drop lower. I'm not talking about a channel or trend but more of the end of a trend in a premium. I'm sure if you're an Elliott Waver you can also define it (maybe like an EDT) and add Fib Values to it, but I'm no EW expert. I just noticed this have over and over again and I'll be able to define it in rules, but atm it's just more intuitive for me. I'll let you know once I'm able to define them in more detail. If you look for that in your own charts, maybe you can apply it as well. 

Seeing that we've made 2 highs already but fell short of the 3rd one is one reason why we could go higher one more time. In the meantime though, Bitcoin's getting some orders at the Breaker and below the relatively equal lows in the m1.

After getting the liquidity Bitcoin rallied higher into the -OB and the BSL resting above the short term high. This is an area of resistance as we took BSL and got into an old area of resistance, the -OB. 

AVGO

Maybe you remember my analysis on AVGO. Here's what that trade out of the m5 looks like now:

For transparencies’ sake: The little red circles are still the markers where I said would be good TPs. 

It rallied over 40% from where I said would be a nice entry. I don't say this to brag, but to reiterate what I've been saying since starting to post here on TakeProfit. Always leave a little something after take the majority of the position at your pre-planned TPs.

You never know how much a ticker can rally until does. Move your Stop into Profit where you're comfortable for price to fall back to and don't care if you get stopped out at that position. If you get stopped out, it doesn't matter. If it runs, you get a nice little extra on top of your "actual" TPs :)

Also it respected the Gap at the 50% nicely, not 100% but still good enough. If you go back to my Pre Bitcoin Halving Analysis and the following updates, you'll notice the same thing happening after the halving.