Navigating Bitcoin's Path: Insights from the Halving Cycle

Understanding the intricate movements of Bitcoin prices can be challenging for many. However, this article aims to provide a comprehensive view of the decade-old Bitcoin Halving cycle, a recurring pattern that has not only accurately predicted major price shifts but has also earned acknowledgment in academic circles. The insights shared here are designed to instill confidence in the presented thesis.

Revisiting and Updating the Thesis

Amidst the historic approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, we find an opportune moment to revisit my thesis, coinciding with an upcoming Halving Cycle expected in approximately three months (May 2024). The availability of the spot Bitcoin ETF is anticipated to serve as a fundamental catalyst propelling Bitcoin to $100,000 and beyond in the long run, although not necessarily before 2025. This development is poised to ignite excitement and intrigue for investors.

Analyzing the Bitcoin Halving Cycle for 2024

The Bitcoin Halving Cycle stands out as a significant driver behind the cyclical price movements of Bitcoin. During the May 2021 bear market, five key events unfolded, demonstrating the cyclical nature of price movements. These events included a reversal pattern, a 50% decline from the peak, a rebound, another decline, and finally a bottoming out. The current recovery phase, expected to extend to April 2024, has been identified based on this cyclical behavior.

Projections for 2024

Anticipating Bitcoin to be within the $40,000-$50,000 range for the remainder of the recovery period, we draw parallels with previous Halving Cycles. Considering the historical patterns, the projection suggests that the bull market may kick off at around $42,500. Following this, the next Halving event is expected, leading to Bitcoin reaching its $70,000 all-time high approximately three months after the 2024 Halving Event. A conservative new ATH of $80,000 to $90,000 is projected by April 2025.

1. Technical Aspects: Analyzing the historical bull runs, a diminishing upside potential is observed after each cycle. Extrapolating conservatively, a 2x-3x rise from the current price is expected, reaching the $85,000 level, close to the resistance imposed by the Bitcoin Halving Cycle.
2. Fundamental Considerations: Institutional demand, fueled by the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, forms a crucial element of the thesis. However, potential economic weaknesses, such as a shrinking M2 money supply and elevated interest rates, pose challenges for Bitcoin to break the $90,000 psychological level.

Verdict and Strategy

While bullish on Bitcoin, the expectation remains conservative, with less probability of surpassing $100,000. The Bitcoin Halving Cycle projections for 2024 outline Bitcoin's trajectory between $40,000 and $50,000 until the Halving Event, followed by a rally to $80,000-$90,000 by April 2025. Acknowledging technical and fundamental aspects, I would recommend a cautious approach beyond $100,000.